On July 27, Ipsos/Reuters released the results of a new national poll commissioned by Ipsos/Reuters, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Ipsos/Reuters poll results
According to the results, 14.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was conducted from July 16 to July 20 with 1232 respondents.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 30.4% for Clinton and 69.6% for Trump. For comparison: Only 9.0% was gained by Clinton in the Ipsos/Reuters poll on July 26, for Trump this number was 91.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 49.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 20.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Ipsos/Reuters poll.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 21.5 points below his polling numbers.