Trump hold big advantage in YouGov/Economist poll
YouGov/Economist published the results of a new national poll on July 26. In this poll, which was sponsored by YouGov/Economist, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
YouGov/Economist poll results
The results show that 26.0% of respondents would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out via Internet from July 23 to July 24 among 364 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-5.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can contain large biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 40.6% for Clinton and 59.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls has Trump at 49.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the YouGov/Economist poll Trump's poll average is 9.8 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 11.3 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.