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Trump leads by 14 points in new Morning Consult poll

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Morning Consult published the results of a new national poll on July 26. In this poll, which was sponsored by Morning Consult, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Morning Consult poll results
25

Clinton

33

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 25.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted via Internet from July 22 to July 24 among 876 participants. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 43.1% for Clinton and 56.9% for Trump. On July 25 Clinton obtained 47.6% in the Morning Consult poll and Trump obtained only 52.4%.

Results compared to other polls

An average of recent polls has Trump at 49.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 7.3 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Morning Consult poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 8.8 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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