Ohio: Clinton tied with Trump in new PPP (D) poll
Results of a new poll administered by PPP (D) were circulated on July 26. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often gained similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that both candidates can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted between July 22 and July 24. The sample size was 1334 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-2.7 points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. In the latest PPP (D) poll on May 2 Clinton obtained 51.7%, while Trump obtained only 48.3%.
Results compared to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.2 percentage points. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.2% and Trump 49.8% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 0.2 percentage points less and Trump has 0.2 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.