The Jérôme & Jérôme model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton and Trump will each garner 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on June 22 Trump was predicted to win 49.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they may contain substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 48.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
In Comparison to the econometric model, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote, which is 1.9 percentage points above the econometric model results.