Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in latest Gravis Marketing/OANN poll
By Gravis Marketing/OANN published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, which was conducted on behalf of Gravis Marketing/OANN, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Gravis Marketing/OANN poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 51.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 21 to July 22, among a random sample of 3462 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-1.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 49.0% for Clinton and 51.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Trump at 49.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Gravis Marketing/OANN poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 48.1% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.9 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is significant.
