Methods widely agree on the election outcome
PollyVote today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five forecast a win for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.
Contrary to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 51.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 51.8% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 48.8% of the vote.
A trend favoring Clinton has appeared in the expectation polls, the expert surveys and the econometric models. The trend continued for the longest time in the econometric models — within 82 days Clinton's vote share has increased by 0.7 percentage points. Trump has however continuously become more popular in prediction markets and aggregated polls. His upward trend has remained constant in prediction markets, he was able to obtain 1.9 percentage points during 8 days.