On July 25, LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the GOP.
LA Times poll results
Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 18 to July 24 with 2083 respondents. The error margin is +/-2.2 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump. In the most recent LA Times poll on July 24 Clinton obtained 48.3%, while Trump obtained only 51.7%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 48.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Relative to his numbers in the LA Times poll Trump's poll average is 3.4 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.3 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.