Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump

The Jérôme & Jérôme model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton and Trump will each win 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on June 22 Trump was predicted to garner 49.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results vs. Other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 48.8% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Jérôme & Jérôme model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.0%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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