Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead
The Issues and Leaders model enters the quantitative index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.0%. In comparison, on July 19, Clinton was predicted to achieve 52.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, quantitative index models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual quantitative index model. At the very least, one should check how a quantitative index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other quantitative index models
An average of recent quantitative index models sees Clinton at 53.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's quantitative index model average is 1.5 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results are consistent with the prediction from PollyVote.