Big-issue index model: Clinton tied with Trump

The Big-issue model is part of the quantitative index models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate ending up with 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on July 19, Clinton was predicted to end up with 50.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, quantitative index models are subject to bias. Hence, don't rely too much on the results of an individual quantitative index model. At least, one should check how a quantitative index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other quantitative index models

If we look at an average of quantitative index models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 46.5%. In comparison to his numbers in the Big-issue index model Trump's quantitative index model average is 3.6 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

In Comparison to the quantitative index model, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 48.0% of the two-party vote, which is 2.1 percentage points below the quantitative index model results.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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