On July 24, LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the nominees were Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party and Donald Trump for the Republican Party.
LA Times poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 17 to July 23 with 2083 respondents. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-2.2 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they can include large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump. For comparison: 48.8% was obtained by Clinton in the LA Times poll on July 23, for Trump this result was only 51.2%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 48.2%. Compared to his numbers in the LA Times poll Trump's poll average is 3.5 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.8% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.9 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.