PollyVote today forecasts a national two-party vote share of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. For the last 7 day, things have been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.3 percentage points.
What Polly's components expect
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently leading with 51.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 51.8% for Clinton. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the expert surveys. Clinton wins 1.9 percentage point.