Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll on July 22. In this poll, respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Quinnipiac poll results
The results show that 47.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 7 to October 11 with 1735 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump. On July 21 Clinton received 54.2% in the Quinnipiac poll and Trump received only 45.8%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Connecticut polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. Compared to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.