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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


In the latest update, PollyVote concludes that Clinton will collect 52.3% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.7% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on the election outcome: Five forecast a win for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is right now ahead by 51.2%.

Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

A trend in the econometric models, the expectation polls and the expert surveys in favor of Clinton has taken shape. The econometric models have seen this trend for the longest time so far, with an increase of 0.7 percentage points for Clinton's vote share in the last 80 days. Trump has however become the front runner in prediction markets and aggregated polls. During 6 days she had gained an additional 1 percentage point in prediction markets, making this his longest running upward trend.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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