Clinton ahead, according to latest PollyVote forecast

Polly currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 5 day, in which she lost 0.2 percentage points.

Looking at the components

The component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five predict a win for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win.

Contrary to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 51.2%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 51.9% for Clinton. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Trump gained 2.2 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has presented a shift this large.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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