Clinton ahead, according to latest PollyVote forecast
Polly currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend over the past 5 day, in which she lost 0.2 percentage points.
Looking at the components
The component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five predict a win for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win.
Contrary to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 51.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 51.9% for Clinton. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Trump gained 2.2 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has presented a shift this large.