Results of a new poll administered by Quinnipiac were published on July 21. The poll asked respondents from Connecticut for whom they would vote if the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton and the GOP nominated Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 7 to October 11 among 1735 registered voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-2.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Connecticut has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, the PollyVote is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.