In the latest update, Polly predicts that Clinton will collect 52.4% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.6% for Trump.
What the component methods say
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently ahead by 51.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 52.1% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 48.8% of the vote.
Trump gained 2.2 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has presented a shift this large.