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Clinton ahead, according to most recent PollyVote forecast

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In the latest update, Polly predicts that Clinton will collect 52.4% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.6% for Trump.

What the component methods say

Polly's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is currently ahead by 51.2%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 52.1% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 48.8% of the vote.

Trump gained 2.2 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has presented a shift this large.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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