Results of a new national poll conducted by ICITIZEN were circulated. The poll asked participants for whom they would vote if the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump.
ICITIZEN poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents are going to to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was carried out between July 12 and July 15. The sample size was 1300 participants. The error margin is +/-5.0 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 52.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the ICITIZEN poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is insignificant.