Results of a new national poll administered by GQR (D-Democracy Corps) were published on July 20. The poll asked participants for whom they would vote if the Democratic Party nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump.
GQR (D-Democracy Corps) poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees indicated to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from July 13 to July 18 among 1000 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump. On July 12 Clinton received 56.5% in the GQR (D-Democracy Corps) poll and Trump received only 43.5%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the GQR (D-Democracy Corps) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.