The combined PollyVote today predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
A look at the components
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now ahead by 51.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are aggregated polls with a vote share of 52.1% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 48.8% of the vote.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets;Clinton loses 2.38 percentage point.