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Trump and Clinton virtually tied in latest Big-issue index model


The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 50.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.7%. In comparison, on July 15, Clinton was predicted to win only 50.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single quantitative index models, since they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single quantitative index models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined quantitative index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other quantitative index models

An average of recent quantitative index models has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote, which is 2.2 percentage points above the quantitative index model results.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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