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Issues and Leaders model: Trump trails by a small margin


The Issues and Leaders model is included in the quantitative index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single quantitative index models may contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a quantitative index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other quantitative index models

An average of recent quantitative index models sees Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The quantitative index model results for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.5%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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