The Issues and Leaders model is included in the quantitative index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single quantitative index models may contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a quantitative index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other quantitative index models
An average of recent quantitative index models sees Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The quantitative index model results for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.5%.