Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll on July 19. In this poll, interviewees from Connecticut were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 1 to June 5. A total of 1330 registered voters responded. The sampling error is +/-2.7 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump.
Results vs. Other polls
An average of recent polls in Connecticut has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.