In the latest forecast, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will obtain 52.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.5% for Trump.
A look at Polly's components
The component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five forecast a win for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.
Contrary to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 51.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are aggregated polls with a vote share of 52.3% for Clinton. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month these have been the largest changes in the prediction markets;Clinton loses 2.08 percentage point.