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Clinton ahead, according to latest PollyVote forecast


In the latest forecast, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will obtain 52.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.5% for Trump.

A look at Polly's components

The component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five forecast a win for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.

Contrary to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 51.2%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are aggregated polls with a vote share of 52.3% for Clinton. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Compared to the previous month these have been the largest changes in the prediction markets;Clinton loses 2.08 percentage point.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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