Results of a new national poll conducted by Morning Consult were distributed on July 18. The poll asked interviewees for whom they would vote if the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump.
Morning Consult poll results
The results show that 41.0% of respondents would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 14 to July 16 via Internet. A total of 2002 respondents responded. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-2.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 51.3% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump. On March 28 Clinton received 53.7% in the Morning Consult poll and Trump received only 46.3%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Morning Consult poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.