NBC published the results of a new national poll on July 18. In this poll, which was sponsored by NBC News, interviewees were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
NBC poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out between July 9 and July 13. The sample size was 1053 participants. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-5.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.2%. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the NBC poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.