In today's update, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will end up with 52.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.5% for Trump.
What Polly's components expect
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently leading with 51.2%.
Combined polls predict a vote share of 52.2% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Trump lost 1.88 percentage point in the expert surveys compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.