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Clinton in the lead, according to today’s PollyVote forecast

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In today's update, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will end up with 52.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.5% for Trump.

What Polly's components expect

There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is currently leading with 51.2%.

Combined polls predict a vote share of 52.2% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Trump lost 1.88 percentage point in the expert surveys compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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