Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll on July 17. In this poll, respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from June 1 to June 5, among a random sample of 1330 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump. In the most recent Quinnipiac poll on July 16 Clinton received only 54.0%, while Trump received 46.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Connecticut polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.7%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is insignificant.