Results of a new poll carried out by CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov were released on July 17. The poll asked interviewees from Ohio for whom they would vote if the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular importance.
CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of participants intend to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 13 to July 15 among 1104 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 50.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.