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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


The combined PollyVote currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump. The component methods widely agree on who will be America's next president: Five predict a win for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 51.2%.

Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 52.2% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

A trend favoring Clinton has appeared in the econometric models, the expectation polls and the expert surveys. The trend continued for the longest time in the econometric models — within 74 days Clinton's vote share has increased by 0.7 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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