Results of a new poll carried out by Quinnipiac were circulated on July 16. The poll asked interviewees from Connecticut for whom they would vote if the Democratic Party nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republicans nominated Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 7 to October 11. A total of 1735 registered voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-2.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump. To compare: 54.2% was obtained by Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll on July 15, for Trump this result was only 45.8%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Connecticut. Relative to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.