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Florida: New NBC-WSJ-Marist poll shows Clinton with 9-point lead

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Results of a new poll carried out by NBC-WSJ-Marist were published on July 16. The poll asked respondents from Florida for whom they would vote if the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton and the GOP nominated Donald Trump.

Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular interest.

NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
44

Clinton

37

Trump

Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from July 5 to July 11. A total of 871 registered voters responded. The sampling error is +/-3.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump. On April 27 Clinton obtained 54.4% in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll and Trump obtained only 45.6%.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Florida sees Clinton at 50.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 4.0 percentage points worse. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 49.8% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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