In the latest update, Polly concludes that Clinton will garner 52.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.5% for Trump. Clinton has however experienced a downward trend for the last 6 day, in which she lost 0.2 percentage points.
Looking at Polly's components
The component methods widely agree on who will be America's next president: Five anticipate a victory for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now leading with 51.2%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 52.1% for Clinton. With a vote share of 48.8% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Trump lost 1.88 percentage point in the expert surveys compared to the previous month, no other component has presented a shift this large.