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Issues and Leaders model: Trump trails by a small margin


The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the quantitative index models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will garner 52.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single quantitative index models can contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a quantitative index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other quantitative index models

Clinton currently runs at 53.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent quantitative index models. Compared to her numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's quantitative index model average is 1.5 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The quantitative index model results for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.5%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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