Combined PollyVote forecasts win for Clinton

PollyVote currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump. For the last 5 day, Polly's forecast been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.2 percentage points.

Today, however, Clinton has percentage point more than PollyVote's predictions from a month ago.

Looking at the component methods

There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is right now ahead by 51.2%.

Combined polls predict a vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 48.8% of the vote.

Trump lost 1.88 percentage point in the expert surveys compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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