Combined PollyVote forecasts win for Clinton
PollyVote currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton and 47.5% for Trump. For the last 5 day, Polly's forecast been looking worse for Clinton, she has since lost 0.2 percentage points.
Today, however, Clinton has percentage point more than PollyVote's predictions from a month ago.
Looking at the component methods
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now ahead by 51.2%.
Combined polls predict a vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 48.8% of the vote.
Trump lost 1.88 percentage point in the expert surveys compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.