Results of a new poll conducted by NBC-WSJ-Marist were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Colorado for whom they would vote if the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton and the GOP nominated Donald Trump.
Colorado is traditionally a purple state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically gained similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is viewed as crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 5 to July 11. A total of 794 registered voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Colorado has Clinton at 54.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote in Colorado. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.