Results of a new national poll administered by Economist were spread on July 14. The poll asked respondents for whom they would vote if the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton and the Republicans nominated Donald Trump.
Economist poll results
The results show that 45.0% of interviewees said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between July 9 and July 11. The sample size was 932 participants. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. To compare: 52.8% was obtained by Clinton in the Economist poll on July 6, for Trump this result was only 47.2%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.4%. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Economist poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 1.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.