Texas: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will receive 39.2% of the two-party vote share in Texas, whereas Trump will win 60.9%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 38.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Texas sees Trump at 57.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.0 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 5.0 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 13.5 percentage points higher.