The DeSart model enters the the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 36.7% for Clinton and 63.3% for Trump in Tennessee. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to gain only 35.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump is currently at 58.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Tennessee. This value is 4.9 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in Tennessee, which is 6.8 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 15.9 percentage points higher.