Oregon: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model enters the the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump in Oregon. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to garner 47.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 54.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Oregon. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.8% in Oregon. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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