New Jersey: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 56.9% for Clinton and 43.2% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to garner 44.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 57.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Jersey. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 56.5% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 4.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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