New Hampshire: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in latest DeSart model

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton and 49.6% for Trump in New Hampshire. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 49.3% of the vote.

New Hampshire is traditionally a battleground state, where Republicans and Democrats have historically won similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 51.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.9% in New Hampshire. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.2 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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