FOX News published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Colorado were asked for whom they would vote if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican Party's candidate.
In Colorado, the popular vote is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
FOX News poll results
The results show that 44.0% of respondents intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 9 to July 12 among 600 registered voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Colorado polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.9%. In comparison to her numbers in the FOX News poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.8% of the two-party vote in Colorado. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is negligible.