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New DeSart model in Ohio: Clinton and Trump virtually tied

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The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will win 50.9%. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 47.9% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically won similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is regarded critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Ohio econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.2%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.7 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The econometric model results for Trump are thus 0.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.0% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 3.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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