Nebraska: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 35.9% for Clinton and 64.1% for Trump in Nebraska. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to gain only 34.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Nebraska has Trump at 61.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 61.1% of the two-party vote in Nebraska, which is 3.0 percentage points below the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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