The DeSart model enters the the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump in Minnesota. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to gain 49.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Minnesota econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.3%. Compared to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.7 percentage points better.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Minnesota, which is 1.8 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.9 percentage points lower.