Maryland: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart model released an updated predictionof the election result. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 61.4% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, while Trump will end up with 38.6%. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to gain 39.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Maryland has Clinton at 60.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.8 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 2.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.1% in Maryland. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.9 percentage points higher.