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Latest DeSart model in Wisconsin: Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie

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The DeSart model enters the the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump in Wisconsin. In comparison, on April 27 Trump was still predicted to achieve 50.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Wisconsin has Clinton at 52.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The econometric model results for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.8% in Wisconsin. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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