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Latest DeSart model in Pennsylvania: Clinton and Trump in a tossup


The DeSart model enters the the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.3% for Clinton and 49.7% for Trump in Pennsylvania. In comparison, on April 27, Clinton was predicted to collect only 49.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they may include large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Pennsylvania econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.0%. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

In Comparison, the PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania, which is 1.7 percentage points above the econometric model results. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.3 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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